Saturday, October 15, 2005

It seems to work: Review of "Distant Day" Intra day prediction of DJI-Nasdaq for October 14,2005

Summary: Over "80%" successful prediction

Prediction for Our Remote Day Experiment no 4: for DJI-NASDAQ for October 14,2005 ( predicted on October 12 ,2005 before market opened) was

"On Friday Both indices are likely to be very volatile. Sharp rise and fall is likely in morning and again in late afternoon. Mid session of approximately 2 hours ( 11.30am -1.30pm) is less certain and may be range bound. NASDAQ is likely to peform better than DJIA most of the day but a sharp rise and fall (in that order) for both indices is indicated in late afternoon" Link to Full & Original Prediction

Review: How the day turned out

What went rightwith our prediction : (1) Morning was most volatile. (2) NASDAQ outperformed DJI though it really would not matter if it had not. (3) Sharp rise and fall in morning and sharp rise in afternoon (4) Most of our strategies except last one would have fetched profits.(4) uncertain component of our prediction- mid session was range bound- only 5 points up and down

What went wrong: We expected (1) volatility in afternoon linked to (2) sharp fall in late afternoon that did not happen. ( though the fault was ours, not in concept of remote day prediction - looking back at cards , fall in afternoon was a low probability event)

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