Friday, September 30, 2005

The moral of the story is ...Review of weekly Prediction


For the week of september 26-30 we predicted

Link to
Weekly Prediction Sept 26-30

Will Corrections continue this week? Cards indicate that market will be in recovery mode and is likely to end with gains which may be significant. Mid phase may seem some correction but overall market will recover from any disappointments and corrections.

We also predicted gains for 7 out of ten scrips on a experimental basis.

Review: What actually happened

When The market was in correction mode and uncertain, we predicted not just gains but significant gains and also recovery from any correction during mid-phase of week. This was clearly a week of great gains and recovery from any form of correction as shown in weekly chart above.


On experimental weekly prediction for 10 scrips we showed over 80% success rate. The moral of story is that faced with prospect of overall gains during a given time period , bet on stocks that are predicted to gain value than those that are predicted to loose value over that time and conversely when market is expected to slide, bet on stocks that are predicted to loose value and not the reverse . That is what I learnt this week.

For example, out of 10 stocks chosen TISCO, Infosys, ITC were predicted to loose shar evalue ona week basis. This turned out to be true only for ITC. However we predicted good gains overall or during the week for LT, SBI , Reliance, ICICI, BHEL HDFC & ONGC . I think all these seven stocks have shown higher proportionaate gains than Infosys. TISCO (and of course ITC). So even if you had gone with any of the seven stocks rather than the other three, gains would have higher than otherwise

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