Review of Intra Day US Stock market-Dow-Nasdaq prediction for friday October 28,2005

For Friday October 28, we made a "high risk label - only for observation" prediction for DJI-Nasdaq before market opened. The prediction was

"Today both indices DJIA and NASDAQ may perform differently . DJI likely to rise to day's highest point around noon ( it may be in positive or negative zone) . However afternoon session (last two hours approx) will be volatile with a steep dip/fall likely in last 90 minutes of trade which may be followed by recovery.

NASDAQ likely to underperform compared to DJI (i.e heavier losses or limited gains in NASDAQ )"

Link to Actual Prediction

Review : What realy happened

1. DJIA outperformed NASDAQ ( DJI rose 1.69%, NASDAq 1.26 %)

2.Both indices rose substantially by mid day but rise continued till end of day

3. In last 90 minutes (actually last 60 minutes), NASDAQ fell 19% from preceding peak attained and DJI fell about 14% but both indices recovered as predicted- the fall and recovery is dwarfed by mere size of rise in both NASDAQ and DJI. However we expected more substantial fall.

4. NASDAQ was much more volatile.

Though we did not suggest any strategy, going long in morning as implied by prediction would probably ( limit price may have got triggered?) have fetched profits.

Further the above shows that even an imperfect prediction as the case would often be, it is possible to make profits based on our prediction( peak came not at around mid day but late afternoon but hardly )matters