Review of Scrip Prediction: Criminal profits or saintly profits?

Experiment 7: Results Scrip wise Intra day prediction for Thursday September 08,2005 : Link to actuall full prediction: Scrip prediction: September 08,2005

Outcome of Scrip wise Intra Day Prediction of 12 scrips ( September 08,2005)

Success rate of prediction of over 85% (see below)

Laughing all the way to the bank/Huge criminal Profits: BHEL, ITC, ICICI Bank, HDFC

Smiling all the way to the Bank (Good Profits) : Reliance Capital, Titan , Infosys, Reliance

Saintly Profits or profits without guilt : TISCO

Did I lose or gain?: Tata Motors, SBI

Sulking Loss/Bad karma ( tolerable loss really) : ONGC


Detailed review: You can see scrip wise Intra day movement on www.nse-india.com or www.in.yahoo.com/finance ( locate each scrip code)

1. Infosys

Prediction : Profit booking could quickly set in. Hence go short in morning if it has opened or quickly gained handsomely in the morning hour. It may gain again around post noon (1-2 pm) from mid day levels

Review: There was minor profit booking of about Rs 20 after initial good rise but scrip gained very well in the afternoon from mid day levels

2. Reliance

Prediction: Go long ( buy) in morning if it opens with significant losses over previous day closing as good rise/recovery in morning is possible

Review: The scrip opened very strong and rose further before profit booking reduced the gains.

3.ICICI Bank

Prediction :Go long (Buy) in morning if it opens very weak as quick recovery is possible. But a volatile day for this stock

Review: A huge profit from buying the morning as scrip opened weak down 2-3 rupees but from these low levels gained over 20 rupees over the day. Mostly one way movement, no volatility.

4.ONGC

Go short (sell) in morning particularly if it opens with good gains. Again a volatile day for this stock.

Review: Outcome loss. Quite volatile. All gains lost by 1 pm in sharp dip before staging bigger recovery.

5.ITC

Prediction: Go long in morning and reverse position (go short ) if trailing stop loss gets triggered by mid day.

Review: Profit would have been made both ways. ITC gained over 10 rupees from morning low before crashing over twenty rupees in a volatile day

6.SBI

Prediction:Go long ( buy ) in the morning and then go short (sell) in the afternoon .

Review: A difficult scrip to review. Depending on what time you bought it and loss limit price used, outcome would have been minor loss or good profit

7. BHEL

Prediction: Good stock to go long on (buy) in the morning particularly if it is weak or has lost value relative to previous closing. Go short in the afternoon.

Review: Buying it when it was weak down over 3-4 ruppes in morning would have given huge huge profits as scrip ran up over 45 rupees and the losing about rs 25 from the day’s high. Hence huge profit from both segment of strategy

8.TELCO

Prediction: Go long in the afternoon/mid day or short in morning ( sell)

Review: Shorting in morning would have resulted in loss but going long in afternoon would have made up for the losses as scrip had another run-up in the afternoon.

9. Tisco

Prediction: Go long ( buy ) in morning . Later in the afternoon it may shed some of its gains

Review: A scrip with minor gains.

10. HDFC

Prediction: A volatile phase. Go long in morning ( buy ) and again if afternoon it drops in the afternoon.

Review: Huge profits twice over as buying in afternoon again would have again given good profits

11.Reliance capital

Prediction: Go short (sell) ) in the morning is possible unless opening price is very weak compared to previous closing

Review: The scrip began to lose gains after it early morning gains hence good profits from shorting.

12. Titan Industries

Prediction: Go long ( buy ) in morning unless it opens with significant gains. It will lose some of its gains by afternoon.

Review: Going short based on the fact that scrip quickly gained early morning would have given good profits